Just a quick post today.  Lots of small volume bs gains about the markets the past few days as they continue to show strength and edge up over the consolidation range.  A lot of the stocks I’ve mentioned in the past 3 posts are still looking pretty good, but I don’t really want to re-post any analysis.

Here’s WHR which I mentioned in writing only, looks ripe:

Flagging on WHR

And PCU looks like a nice short term short here, and I am quite bearish on this one:

PCU has lost trend and looks like dropping

It’s pretty late and I’m tired so 3 other tickers just by name: BBY (bear flag with $41.50 key price), BBBY (watch for consolidation and breaks to new highs) & HOG (trendline and support level at $25 – downgraded recently so watch for a drop past these).

Ho Ho Ho, merry Christmas.

Charts galore at the moment, here are some more decent looking setups for Dec 23rd onwards:

DD bear flag continuation after asc wedge

Probably the nicest looking chart for today.  The upward trend has waned on DD and it’s now looking very bearish.  Ascending wedge, retesting the 50EMA as resistance in a bear flag continuation pattern, heavy volume sell-off day, low volume bounce, negative divergence channel in the stochastics.  The price of failure here is $32.  Initial target at $30 with a view to $26 in the longer term.

Negativity on the menuu as FWLT approaches support

There are a lot of bear flags forming and here is another.  Very heavy distribution lately, and this too is hovering near support with the 50EMA giving pressure.  The $27 area has been a decent S/R range for a while here, so any break of this and I’m looking at $24 to the downside on a gap fill.  Any retest of $27 as resistance following a drop is a great entry short.

Nice consolidation pattern as HOT looks for new highs

Simple “break-out to new highs, declining volume consolidation” setup.

Standard setup on MAR

I will be watching MAR at the $28 level.  Despite looking like it should go for it, something isn’t sitting right here for me as I don’t like the low volume drift up to resistance.  Any strong volume coming in will spark my interest long, and watch for the herd mentality when the 50EMA supports.  Would like to see a decisive candlestick here too.

NEM looks like selling past first support level

NEM has sold off heavily lately along with the price of gold.  Lots of distribution and a solid bear flag setup led NEM to drop just below the support level around $46.75.  Should this level fail to hold I am looking at $42.50.

Can you cup & handle it?

I haven’t seen a cup & handle for a long time so here is one on RF.  I’m not a huge fan of the sector, but this is an alright pattern in what is a downward channel/descending wedge.  The volume lately has been low, and should some bulls come in here we could see a pretty decent rally.  Watch for the volume on this one.

Who isn't watching these levels in RIMM?

$60, $65 & $70 are very key levels for RIMM at the moment.  I will be watching to see if this will close the recent gap at $65 and continue northwards.  There is a lot of support close to the current level so I don’t see this heading much lower than $60 for a while if it does get hairy in the techs.

Last week was a good week for technicals in the stocks I mentioned in the Dec 18 post.  CAKE, AA, MOS, NWSA & WHR have showed good strength in the last 2 sessions and continue to look good long.  I am still watching these, but I have a few more setups to share:

BUCY has been stuck in a pretty solid consolidation range between $50 and $55 lately.  A volume backed breakout occurred yesterday as the stock closed above $56.  Strong moves in basic materials mean positive undertones for BUCY, and I am bullish with a $60 target.

A large ranging continuation wedge was broken on LSI yesterday, also closing well above horizontal resistance at $5.80.  The volume relative to the move is not wholly inspiring, but any moves to new highs over $6.06 will catch my interest long.  I will be watching for a flag here.

There are a lot of mediocre bearish charts from a technical perspective out there at the moment, and this is the best bearish chart I’ve seen lately.  Heavy selling on the breakdown of the descending triangle, and this is currently forming a pennant and second descending triangle as the 50EMA moves in for added pressure.  This is a good example of a bear flag, and while I will not be shocked at a rally to $15 if this shows strength, I am bearish in the medium/long term with a $9 target.

Pretty standard setup here as I look for moves on volume above and beyond $22.50.

AMP is one of the more interesting charts I’m looking at right now.  This has trended very nicely with a series of continuation moves higher.  This upward channel however has started to look like a large ascending wedge formation.  In the shorter timeframe, we have another tight wedge with mostly average volume action.  I will be watching the 50EMA and $40 here for the breakout catalysts, however should this show weakness, we have a potential gap filler to the downside.  This could go either way which is why it’s interesting.

Nice ascending channel with a recent ascending triangle breakout on good volume.  Despite being at the top of the channel range, ADBE is bull flagging here and looks like heading to new highs with the $37 area now the support price.

That makes about 15 pretty good looking setups at the moment, so there is plenty of trading to be had.  I continue to watch the range bound action in the indices for a real indicator of where we are headed.

Long time no update, not been able to spend much time watching the markets for the latter part of this year eh?  On holiday now and have been watching a lot of CNBC and Bloomberg so I fired up TOS and did some analysis.  Couple of interesting charts..

I’d first like to mention that I think the market is looking very toppy at the moment.  Financials are showing a lot of weakness and are breaking to the downside.  The one bad thing about the topping pattern is the time of year, as lighter volume around the holidays and a “new year” mentality may have an impact on the strength of any downward movement.

CSX

Caught in a range between $46 and $50.  Struggling to close over $50 level.  Long term ascending trend, however this is becoming an ascending wedge.  Any break out of the current range represents a good entry.

CAKE

Cake has been very linear for the past 8 months with pretty good support level and range trading.  At the moment it’s leading up to a double top on some nice buying pressure and favourable price action.  Cake has developed a decent base at the $20 level which was not so established when testing $21 in September.  A solid close over $20.25 here on cake and I’m bullish with initial targets at $22.

NKE

Another channel trade with nice upside on a bullish break.  They’re reporting today so that may be a catalyst.  I would normally be bullish with this setup but something doesn’t quite feel right here.  Excellent risk:reward trade on a retest of $66 as support (on breakout) or $62 as resistance (breakdown).

MOS

Excellent technicals in MOS lately following a nice breakout with a trend reversing inverse head and shoulders.  Looking for continuation move off $55 long for a low risk trade.  Good volume spike on the breakout with a declining volume pullback to the support level.

AA

The volume pattern and recent bullish moves in AA have all the hallmarks of a bull flag breakout to new highs above $15.  Further small volume retracement to the $14 would be extremely favourable.  My one concern is the large pullbacks (wicking) from daily highs in the past 4 sessions.

Others:

WHR is at an interesting point.  Having recently dropped from a medium term trend it is testing $80 for the third time since late October in what is becoming an ascending triangle formation.  The selloff from the most recent test was on quite heavy volume, and there is successive negative divergence.  This could really go either way but I would like to be primarily bullish with a close above $80.

CHL continues to trade within a descending wedge formation.

MMM looks good at $79.  Breakout and low volume pullback.

PCU has bear flag and further losses written all over it, materials are a real mixed bag at the moment.

NWSA breaking out, however I don’t like the recent high volume distribution on breakout day.  One to watch for continued consolidation.

AKS analysis.  I’m bearish.  Also I meant SBUX not AMZN in the previous post.

TA for AKS

It has been a long time since I’ve done any analysis or watched the markets.  I can’t believe it’s already November.

Anyway I sat down for the first time in ages and spent a little time looking at some charts.  A few surprises in there, and some decent looking charts.  It feels like it’s going to take me a while to get my eye back in and to regain familiarity with trading.

Been looking at these anyway:

Bear flag on GT

Flag into heavy resistance on declining volume on MON

Predicted consolidation/low vol drop to $48 before breakout to new highs +$50 on NEM

AMZN is also approaching strong overhead resistance at $21 with strong buying pressure.

Trading is the only thing I have a genuine passion for.

Does gold have the plums to get over and above 1000 an ounce before the end of the week.  We have seen a few intra-day spikes over this level in the past couple of years, but it never lasts.

Gold bug

If the indices and economy plummet or pullback significantly, gold will get the run over this price.  There have been a lot of ads on the TV these past 2 weeks with companies asking you to send in “any gold, jewelry or broken jewelry etc for CASH!”.  You would be a fool to do this right now.

Well it looks like the stats spreadsheet I had been working on the past 2 weeks was actually a pretty useful tool.  Nice prediction of this sell off here.  The most important lesson from a technical perspective during this time was the whipsaw consolidation period in the S&P.  The spreadsheet pointed towards a drop from the range, which it did.  During the same day the market rocked out all day, with a surge above the same range the following day.

The surge north was on very small volume.  Here is the chart, and I feel it could be useful in the future to determine the top/bottom of trends.

About time too

I would be more satisfied should we close below 100 2 days running.

Charts that looked interesting on Monday night were: CPB, WY, CX, PCP, AA, CMI, EMC, WHR, MRVL, DAL, CHL, CBS, TWC, WAG & LVS.

EMC, WHR & DAL remain interesting.  I am reminded yet again of just how straight forward the smaller airline trades are just now from a technical perspective (JBLU and DAL).

Strong consolidation range

DAL double bottomed off the 50ema (daily) at support range for a wonderful 3 day candlestick pattern

On the EMC chart, I am watching the $15.40 level which has been prior resistance and is now being tested as a double bottom on the 30min/20day.  The breakout was on strong volume, and the trading has been light the past 2 sessions with a small range.

Inversely, WHR broke out nicely, hit a nice first time retest at $62 but has not dropped below and is testing that price as resistance with a nice bear flag pattern.  The volume is light, and a break below $60.50 would be another nice area to catch a short.

Decided to get back to paper trading to keep my mind sharp.  Two fake outs from the trading range in the past 7 hours.  Why is everyone trading when the market is such a chop-fest!?

Yesterday was an absolute chop-fest.  Really dull and indecisive day for the first time in a while.  Pre-market the futures are up 2 points at 1028.75.  I’m not really planning on any trades until the following range in SPY has been breached to either side of $102.50-$104.  Statistically, yesterday was really weak and was comparable with August 20th in terms of my stats spreadsheet.  I have noticed a bit of a pattern at the moment, highlighted by the following diagram:

Set to rip today?

Leading days of the 19th and 25th have similar stats; Adv/Dec, ratio, average percentage of DV total, similar R values, similar Up >AR matrix values.  The Av% sector values were slightly stronger on the 25th.

The 20th and 25th shares similar statistics, however the main difference is that the market was up about a percent on the 20th, while barely staying afloat yesterday.  Again the ratios and matrices are similar here.  Elsewhere, look at how weak the materials have been relative to everything else lately, one day of top 2 performance.

The 21st was a strong day all round and has been the best performing day since I started keeping these stats.  If all the stats in the leading days are similar, then technically today should be pretty bullish.  HOWEVER, like I keep saying; in this market, what ever you think is going to happen – take the opposite side.  Therefore I am bearish leading into today but will not be surprised with a bull rally.  The short term range breakout in the SPY should point to where we are heading.

Elsewhere, I am going to have a bit of a cull on the overall watchlist.  Every day I keep finding another 5-10 setups to add to my daily shortlist.  It’s really better for me to concentrate on a list of about 10 all up premium setups instead.  Exposure to tickers has been good for me, but I am looking firstly to narrow the list to about 150 before figuring out where I am best at making the trades.

Speaking of “more setups”, keep a note on AMAT at $14 resistance, LUV setting up nicely on the daily chart in a similar way to FE.  I am waiting for WAG to pullback to the $32 mark (although I think we’ve missed this one), ITW at $42 & EMR to start forming a bull flag.  See what I mean about too many setups to monitor?

Checking the past 10 days of relative strength, I have noticed that healthcare and utilities have performed the best.  If this is such a bullish rally, then why are defensive stocks outperforming financials etc?  In the shorter timeframe, materials have been hammered the last 3 sessions as consumer, industrial and financials begin to wane.

Up or Down?

It is interesting to overlay the stats spreadsheet colour system atop the 10 day relative strength.  Would be more useful if this were done for each specific sector instead.

Charts and intra-day stuff to follow once market open.  /ES now only up 0.25 points before opening in 20 minutes.

Update 09:48US

Futures down 4.5 points in somewhat predictable fashion.  SPY right at the bottom of the range here at 102.50 so expecting a bounce here (to coincide with time of day).

JBLU featuring my favourite short term trading pattern (ascending wedge):

Easy trading

Update 10:00 US

We have slipped out of the short term trading range in SPY and are looking very bearish across the board.  Market top as indicated by contrarianism.

Update 12:00 US

There is absolutely sweet F all volume in this bounce – again.

I’m really hacked off with trading right now.  Last 3 trades in the red, including yet ANOTHER tos limit order issue and a horrendous trade in RDS.  The market maker on this stock has been taking the mickey for the past 2 hours, I even recorded it with camtasia with intent to post on here.  It was just like FTSE stocks used to me.  He’d narrow the spread to a cent, get a few, then widen it up to 15 cents at points – as soon as someone filled at market he’d move it the other way and lock it back into 1 cent.  I shouldn’t blame anyone or anything for the errors and I take full responsibility for my trading, but something else has happened in the past few days in terms of motivation.  Lately it seems (RDS, RTN, ITUB, ERTS) that every time I get into a trade with a nice chart, it goes nuts and just chops around.

I was well pumped last week and enjoying the trading, but this week I just haven’t gotten into the swing of things, and spending day after day in front of a computer (11am-10pm UK time) grinding out tiny winners with a micro account just isn’t satisfying.  Particularly when you consider the amount of work I have to put into it.  Neither is the fact that 2.5 months after finishing a college course, I still cannot even get an interview because EVERY company around here has a recruitment freeze on at all levels.  All of this is having a seriously negative effect on my positivity, and trading is impossible when your not mentally in the game.

Anyway the markets are just ripping at lunchtime at the moment on the back of zero volume, and it’s almost impossible to trade when it acts like this.  Especially when the participation by the big movers is minimal and particularly when were are testing overhead right now.  I don’t have a clue where these markets are heading and nobody else does either.  But some people are just being straight up retarded with this action right now (ie sales data yesterday).

Anyway with the last 3 trades being negative, these have negated all the gains of my previous 5 successful trades.  The ITUB one is just an absolute killer.  I knew the bounce yesterday was total BS, but you can’t change your stop level – ever.  Anyway the stock went back down to Yesterdays lows on a weak double bottom.  About the only stock doing what it should at the moment is JBLU which itself if pretty much a junk stock.

My main issue is lack of capital.  I can only have 1 or 2 trades open at any one time (and also the 3 trade rule), and all too often I am simply picking the wrong trades.  If I could have 4-6 open at any one time, I would be absolutely owning this market right now and be much more capable of absorbing these small losses.

For this reason I’ve decided to stop actively trading until I work up to save the $25k required to day trade.  I estimate this will probably take 3-5 years so let’s hope there is still a market then.  I will try out ideas on the paper system at TOS just to keep the trading brain oiled, but until I have saved up $25k, this blog will be pretty sparse in reading material.

Happy trading.