The Student Loan Ranger

Just a quick post today.  Lots of small volume bs gains about the markets the past few days as they continue to show strength and edge up over the consolidation range.  A lot of the stocks I’ve mentioned in the past 3 posts are still looking pretty good, but I don’t really want to re-post any analysis.

Here’s WHR which I mentioned in writing only, looks ripe:

Flagging on WHR

And PCU looks like a nice short term short here, and I am quite bearish on this one:

PCU has lost trend and looks like dropping

It’s pretty late and I’m tired so 3 other tickers just by name: BBY (bear flag with $41.50 key price), BBBY (watch for consolidation and breaks to new highs) & HOG (trendline and support level at $25 – downgraded recently so watch for a drop past these).

Ho Ho Ho, merry Christmas.

Charts galore at the moment, here are some more decent looking setups for Dec 23rd onwards:

DD bear flag continuation after asc wedge

Probably the nicest looking chart for today.  The upward trend has waned on DD and it’s now looking very bearish.  Ascending wedge, retesting the 50EMA as resistance in a bear flag continuation pattern, heavy volume sell-off day, low volume bounce, negative divergence channel in the stochastics.  The price of failure here is $32.  Initial target at $30 with a view to $26 in the longer term.

Negativity on the menuu as FWLT approaches support

There are a lot of bear flags forming and here is another.  Very heavy distribution lately, and this too is hovering near support with the 50EMA giving pressure.  The $27 area has been a decent S/R range for a while here, so any break of this and I’m looking at $24 to the downside on a gap fill.  Any retest of $27 as resistance following a drop is a great entry short.

Nice consolidation pattern as HOT looks for new highs

Simple “break-out to new highs, declining volume consolidation” setup.

Standard setup on MAR

I will be watching MAR at the $28 level.  Despite looking like it should go for it, something isn’t sitting right here for me as I don’t like the low volume drift up to resistance.  Any strong volume coming in will spark my interest long, and watch for the herd mentality when the 50EMA supports.  Would like to see a decisive candlestick here too.

NEM looks like selling past first support level

NEM has sold off heavily lately along with the price of gold.  Lots of distribution and a solid bear flag setup led NEM to drop just below the support level around $46.75.  Should this level fail to hold I am looking at $42.50.

Can you cup & handle it?

I haven’t seen a cup & handle for a long time so here is one on RF.  I’m not a huge fan of the sector, but this is an alright pattern in what is a downward channel/descending wedge.  The volume lately has been low, and should some bulls come in here we could see a pretty decent rally.  Watch for the volume on this one.

Who isn't watching these levels in RIMM?

$60, $65 & $70 are very key levels for RIMM at the moment.  I will be watching to see if this will close the recent gap at $65 and continue northwards.  There is a lot of support close to the current level so I don’t see this heading much lower than $60 for a while if it does get hairy in the techs.

Last week was a good week for technicals in the stocks I mentioned in the Dec 18 post.  CAKE, AA, MOS, NWSA & WHR have showed good strength in the last 2 sessions and continue to look good long.  I am still watching these, but I have a few more setups to share:

BUCY has been stuck in a pretty solid consolidation range between $50 and $55 lately.  A volume backed breakout occurred yesterday as the stock closed above $56.  Strong moves in basic materials mean positive undertones for BUCY, and I am bullish with a $60 target.

A large ranging continuation wedge was broken on LSI yesterday, also closing well above horizontal resistance at $5.80.  The volume relative to the move is not wholly inspiring, but any moves to new highs over $6.06 will catch my interest long.  I will be watching for a flag here.

There are a lot of mediocre bearish charts from a technical perspective out there at the moment, and this is the best bearish chart I’ve seen lately.  Heavy selling on the breakdown of the descending triangle, and this is currently forming a pennant and second descending triangle as the 50EMA moves in for added pressure.  This is a good example of a bear flag, and while I will not be shocked at a rally to $15 if this shows strength, I am bearish in the medium/long term with a $9 target.

Pretty standard setup here as I look for moves on volume above and beyond $22.50.

AMP is one of the more interesting charts I’m looking at right now.  This has trended very nicely with a series of continuation moves higher.  This upward channel however has started to look like a large ascending wedge formation.  In the shorter timeframe, we have another tight wedge with mostly average volume action.  I will be watching the 50EMA and $40 here for the breakout catalysts, however should this show weakness, we have a potential gap filler to the downside.  This could go either way which is why it’s interesting.

Nice ascending channel with a recent ascending triangle breakout on good volume.  Despite being at the top of the channel range, ADBE is bull flagging here and looks like heading to new highs with the $37 area now the support price.

That makes about 15 pretty good looking setups at the moment, so there is plenty of trading to be had.  I continue to watch the range bound action in the indices for a real indicator of where we are headed.

Long time no update, not been able to spend much time watching the markets for the latter part of this year eh?  On holiday now and have been watching a lot of CNBC and Bloomberg so I fired up TOS and did some analysis.  Couple of interesting charts..

I’d first like to mention that I think the market is looking very toppy at the moment.  Financials are showing a lot of weakness and are breaking to the downside.  The one bad thing about the topping pattern is the time of year, as lighter volume around the holidays and a “new year” mentality may have an impact on the strength of any downward movement.

CSX

Caught in a range between $46 and $50.  Struggling to close over $50 level.  Long term ascending trend, however this is becoming an ascending wedge.  Any break out of the current range represents a good entry.

CAKE

Cake has been very linear for the past 8 months with pretty good support level and range trading.  At the moment it’s leading up to a double top on some nice buying pressure and favourable price action.  Cake has developed a decent base at the $20 level which was not so established when testing $21 in September.  A solid close over $20.25 here on cake and I’m bullish with initial targets at $22.

NKE

Another channel trade with nice upside on a bullish break.  They’re reporting today so that may be a catalyst.  I would normally be bullish with this setup but something doesn’t quite feel right here.  Excellent risk:reward trade on a retest of $66 as support (on breakout) or $62 as resistance (breakdown).

MOS

Excellent technicals in MOS lately following a nice breakout with a trend reversing inverse head and shoulders.  Looking for continuation move off $55 long for a low risk trade.  Good volume spike on the breakout with a declining volume pullback to the support level.

AA

The volume pattern and recent bullish moves in AA have all the hallmarks of a bull flag breakout to new highs above $15.  Further small volume retracement to the $14 would be extremely favourable.  My one concern is the large pullbacks (wicking) from daily highs in the past 4 sessions.

Others:

WHR is at an interesting point.  Having recently dropped from a medium term trend it is testing $80 for the third time since late October in what is becoming an ascending triangle formation.  The selloff from the most recent test was on quite heavy volume, and there is successive negative divergence.  This could really go either way but I would like to be primarily bullish with a close above $80.

CHL continues to trade within a descending wedge formation.

MMM looks good at $79.  Breakout and low volume pullback.

PCU has bear flag and further losses written all over it, materials are a real mixed bag at the moment.

NWSA breaking out, however I don’t like the recent high volume distribution on breakout day.  One to watch for continued consolidation.

Excellent day on Friday, here are the end of day statistics.  All sectors rocking out on nice volume.

Friday statistics

Lots of things on my radar for next week in terms of setups, the majority of which are bullish.  Mostly based on the daily and 15min charts, so check the one I don’t include for another perspective if any of the tickers catch your eye:

MOS:

Short term ascending triangle with overhead resistance in the $55.50 region.  Full moving average support, however Friday formed an indecisive candlestick with the stock down 0.02% on the highest dollar volume of the week.  I will be watching this for a breakout or retracement after breakout and don’t intend to short.

DIS:

Since the March recovery, Disney has performed well with two nice continuation patterns.  At the close on Friday, Disney is on the verge of a breakout from the third consolidation range in what is a very similar setup to  what happened in April.

Disney range

Quadruple bottom support with triple top resistance ($25 and $28).  Nice range trading here, however the volume has been strong the past few days and I anticipate a breakout.  Full MA support

CAKE:

Looking for continued strength in CAKE this week which has the early signs of a breakout.  Psychological resistance area of $20 is an area to watch this week, pullback to $18.50 would be a a good RRR trade.

Cheesecake up 6%

ERTS:

Bad earnings in sector shoving EA down.  Classic bear flag formation at the moment with a small bounce on tiny buying pressure. Similarly to CAKE, ERTS has tested the $20 level as resistance (prior support) and looking frim.

EA games; challenged by everything

No real support until $17.50.  Another nice RRR trade if you get short above $19.75.

MEE:

Looking for a breakout from a nice resting period following a nice rally on the daily chart. On the half hour chart there are a few key levels worth watching.  $30.50 (res), $27 (sup), $29.50 (short term sup) and also the two way support line (dashed blue).

MEE looking to rock or drop

My only concern that volume has been fairly light on the most recent rally.  For what it’s worth, the divergence at the top at $30.50 is positive, however MEE did not break to new highs with the market on Friday and might show weakness on an average day for the broader market as materials stocks are now beginning to show percentage performance parity with the S&P 500 (check relative strength chart).

CAG:

Check the 15min chart on CAG and you’ll see a nice breakout from the $19.8 level with a close above $20 on increasing dollar volume levels.  I would normally like the long setup here, but by close on Friday, CAG had more or less closed the gap from a year ago.  On top of that the daily chart is forming an ascending wedge.  Should the market begin to show any weakness at the start of next week, CAG could be a good short candidate.  This one could go either way, and as such is a nice stock to be watching.

OI:

A close above $35 could see some movement in OI to the $37.50 region.  Divergence is positive.  Check the next chart of CSX for the same type of setup.

CSX:

Another consolidation range breakout potential chart.  Volume not overly impressive lately.  Support at $42.50 and a close above the $45 region means there could be another few dollars here. No major overhead until $50.

Let's talk about csx

RTN:

RTN is one of those stocks that shows little emotion at support and resistance levels.  The wicking is minimal (like at DIS at the moment), and the levels hold or reject very well.  A nice volume breakout on RTN occured on Friday which caught my attention.  Yes, these consolidation breakout plays are the flavour of the week it seems, but RTN is the nicest for me.

Clinical

$48 if you can get it (or under $48.25) would be a spectacular entry for a RRR trade with technical price targets at $50 (which is also psych overhead) and $52.  I really like the probability on this setup.

KMB:

There are only so many charts of consolidation breakouts you can publish in one post!

Relative sector strength over the past  20 days:

Mighty financials

Economic calendar for next week from Briefing.com:

Sup next week

Should be some good trading next week, here’s something for the weekend:

Trying to focus on the broader market this week.  Listening to the TOS Shadow Trader broadcast as well as watching the Stock Twits stream.  These aren’t necessarily for getting tips as that’s not my thing, it’s more to get as much info and as much chart exposure as possible.  I also spent quite a time on Finviz today scrolling through charts I normally wouldn’t look at.  My filter was Avg Vol < 500k, price under $20 with small market caps.  Found some decent looking swing charts;

ACF chart - Long on pullback to $14 with $18 target

APP - Trading channel $3-$4 long over close above $4

BLDR Ascending triangle with overhead at $6.50. Long at ~$5

KKD - Key level $3.10. Long over, short under $2.50

SFN long ~$4.60

Elsewhere I am long UIS at $1.93 on an ascending triangle breakout setup.  Looking for $2.50.

Sold DRYS at $6.89 yesterday (new low) after the opening 5 minutes, quite a nice cash out as it sold off another 30 cents or so.  I am waiting for this to strike at about $6.20 before taking another position.

Decent looking charts for the next few days:

HOG Flag

HERO Pullback to $4 for long

IP pullback to $16

URI triple top flag with range $6.50-$7

In the pre-market FCX is down another $1.60 to $57 after striking an easy double top at $60.50.

There are a lot of ‘nearly’ good setups out there this week, and in general I’m pretty neutral overall so long as the S&P remains within the channel of 950/875.  This consolidation has been on the go since early May, and as a swing trader I would prefer something a little more concrete in terms of medium term direction.  The watchlist has struggled over the past 2 weeks, so I’ve spent the past few days thinking for a remedy.  I think quantity and diversification were the strong points of the prior watchlists, where I focused on more stocks, but also on ‘either-way’ trades – something I have neglected over the past fortnight.  Quite a mixed bag of setups today so let’s see what my thoughts are heading into next week.

Dryships (DRYS) – Bear flag out of descending wedge breakout.

I’m not sure why I have such an affinity with certain tickers, but DRYS is definitely a favourite of mine based purely on the name.  There are quite a few things happening from a technical perspective for me this week.  DRYS punched out from a descending wedge last week on strength and some relatively decent volume.  Since Tuesday’s strength, the price has gently consolidated on declining volume, a classic bull-flag continuation pattern.  The price rests nicely on the 20EMA, and I like this setup despite DRYS closing out the week on lows.

DRYS Bull-flag

The $6 mark is the key level, as this has been a n important level as far back as February.  I also spy an inverse head and shoulders formation in the making here should the price mudge up another 25 cents.  For an entry here I am looking for a good volume bar, bullish candlestick and a close above the $6 level.  It would be nice for the price to also close above both short term moving averages.  I am not looking to short DRYS until is has closed at about $4.75 which I don’t envisage happening this week..  Stop just below the Tuesdays closing price around $5.75 with a price target of about $7.25.  Tight RRR on this trade but it’s an easy setup with an easy out.

Tech Spider (XLK) – 123 setup or gap fill

Bit of a runaway week for the tech stocks, impressive volume and breakouts to new highs for the year.  I was going to look for relative strength in the tech stocks tonight, but I’m just going to cover XLK instead.  Broke a double top this week on brilliant volume, closing out at highs of $19.  The setup here is pretty straight forward for a long – enter on retracement to $18.50 to a target of $19.50.  The recent range here is quite tight and I don’t expect this to be any kind of big win, but steady trades like this are good for morale.  Longer term, I will be looking for some bearish signals that might point towards a drop and gap fill around $17.85.  A close below $18.50 on heavy selling may signal a reversal here too.

XLK Analysis

A similar setup to XLK this week, in a different sector, is IP.  This is coming out out an ascending wedge with a price target of $20 on retracement to a long at $16/  Good volume the past few days, and like XLK – the stock has all EMA support.

Short Oil – Bearish signals across the board

A bearish DXO is decent for my RIG short, and this is a nice 123 short.  This is a great chart on DXO which brought this option to the table;

Bearish DXO

By the way, DTO and DXO are out of sync a little which may be exploitable.  DTO above $100 would be interesting.

Stock specific, have a look at CHK here.  Re-testing the key $20 level at the moment after a nice 3.5pt move.  Looking to enter short at about $20 with stops at $20.75 with targets at $17.50 and $13.50 on 123 and channel breakdown measured moves.

CHK Analysis

Good RRR trade with a favourable outcome, watch out for the gap fill.  Let’s see what happens this week.

American Express (AXP) – either way

I hardly ever trade anything even remotely financials these days, and I’m not sure why.  Here’s AXP on an either-way trade though.  Double top at $28 (If you see a double top, sell a double top), with a short term higher high and potential bull flag formation therein.  Negative divergence on the MACD (the only time I check the MACD is on double/triple top/bottom).  Got to be bearish here, but who knows?  I am looking to scale in short as close to $28 as possible on Monday depending on the open, with a stop at $28.30 to a target firstly of $25 and then of $22.50.  Should this channel breakdown, the target is $17.50.

AXP Analysis

I may change opinion on a low volume drop back to $25, as the stock has nice EMA support.  A breakout above $28 convincingly and I’m looking for about $35 here.

I also remain bearish on TSO, the analysis of which can be found in some posts from last week.  Short at $12 to $10.

I was also going to cover JNPR in detail but it’s more or less the same setup as AXP with similarities to XLK (but showing relative weakness).  I will watch to see how this bull flag pans out in the first days of next week.

Not as many tickers as I’d hoped, but not working from my own terminal at the moment is obviously affecting my game.

I spent Thursday-Sunday on a trip to Scotlands West Coast, so I missed out on some intra-day action posts.  A lightning strike has also destroyed my router so my internet at home is down.  This means that trading will be difficult this week, so for just now I’ll cover the performance of last weeks Crystal Balling post.

Quite a so-so week for the market as the indices still hold the neckline of the head and shoulders formation, which is leading into a bear flag formation as the right shoulder forms fully.  I remain bearish for the week ahead (which by the way starts in 20 minutes!), particularly on FCX and AFAM.  JCP will open the week at the support line of the wedge formation, with support from the 200EMA.

Freeport McMoran FCX

FCX gave-up the $45 level on Wednesday, triggering an watchlist entry point, however some buyers came into the frame of the lows and jumped FCX back up to close the week at heavy overhead resistance.  I am very bearish leading into this week on FCX for a few reasons here.  First is obviously the H&S, secondly the short term bear flag formation, thirdly the price will test all overhead EMAs at $47.  Lastly, as FCX forms a new descending channel, it will soon retest the former supportive line of the ascending channel – this time as resistance.  To me, these factors represent a strong reason to short more FCX at the $47 area with a stop slightly above the 50EMA.

FCX Analysis

FCX remains a short-hold with a price target of $37.50 medium to long term.

Almost Family AFAM

Everything looking good here so far with a small rise on decreasing volume indicating the formation of a bear flag pattern.  I also like the rise into resistance at $25 where the moving averages look to press upon the price and force it down further.

AFAM Analysis

I’m actually short here at $24.22 having missed a better entry at $24.70.  My target firstly is $22.50 with a view to $17.50 in the longer term.  Stops at $25.25 here.

JC Penney JCP

No entry signal here as JCP continues to stay within the wedge boundaries.  I would like to see the support give way on volume after a failure of the 200EMA.  The same chart from the watchlist post applies here.  Market has just opened for Monday, JCP at a real key level today for me, as per this chart;

Key level for JCP

A very dull week for the descriptive alerts, with RIG the only stock that looks interesting at the moment.  I would like to scale in short beginning at $70.  Bit of a drawdown on watchlist profits, but minimal.  Down to only 3 main stocks on the list and a lack of computer access.

My aim for this week was to focus on one or two tickers for the next week, however I have ended up with quite a sizable watchlist.  This is because of two things; firstly, there are quite a few nice setups, and secondly, I have a lot of spare time on my hands as I look to start my career.  As it stands there are about 10 tickers on the list, but expect a cull as I write down what I think on them.  Quality not quantity.

My general view of the market is bearish from what’s I’ve seen since I got back into the game.  There are a lot of continuation patterns that have followed reversal patterns, particularly in the stocks I was watching in the past 2 watchlists.  The bullish run has petered out over the weeks I’ve been away and it looks like the indices are just completing a head and shoulders formation.  FAZ is also showing a nice basing pattern, so my medium term outlook is short.

AFAM – Almost Family Inc.

Very clean descending wedge formation with a succession of lower highs which led into a high volume 11% slaughter on Thursday.  This scenario is very bearish, and I anticipate further decline.  My entry here is a re-test of the former $25 support range as new resistance.  The target for this formation is; base price – (wedge high-base price) – 25-(32.5-25)=$17.50.

AFAM Analysis - Descending Wedge

This is a longer term swing trade opportunity that represents a strong risk:reward ratio.  Prior to the target, the next support level looks like it is around $20.  This level would be a good level to take some profits off the table and implement a profit taking stop on the remainder.  I have included AFAM despite the low average volume, due to the clarity of the formation and the large volume sell-off.  This stock is hard to borrow, so this setup might not be trad-able.

Freeport Mcmoran – FCX

Like the markets, FCX is closing in on a full head and shoulders reversal pattern.  The key level for FCX is $45.  This is the neckline of the formation, as well as the former high that led into the 123 move in mid May.  The price has found support at the 200EMA lately, however all of the MAs are tangled up as the stock is no longer in an up trend.

FCX Analysis - Head & Shoulders

I am looking to sell FCX at under $45 featuring selling pressure.  The long term target is $30 from the H&S measured move, while the next support level is at $37.50 where I would look to take partial profits.

J C Penney – JCP

JCP is a terrific stock for technical analysis due to the transparency in the patterns and reliability of measured moves – which are generally very accurate.  I tracked this shortly after a breakout in early April, and since then it hit the price target on the nose before retreating.  At the moment JCP is forming a triangular top formation.

JCP Analysis - Triangle

JCP shed some weight on Thursday after a 3 day wicking rejection of the triangle resistance line in the preceding days.  However, JCP does have strong 200EMA support which has coincided with the support line in the past 3 attempts.  I am bearish on JCP, and anticipate a failure of the support line in the next retest, with a price target first of the gap fill at $23.  I will look to short on this setup with a $1 stop.  $23 could come quickly in this setup.

Here are the rest of the tickers I was going to cover in-depth this week, these are best suited for descriptive coverage so check the charts.

FLR – 200 and 50EMA support as it retested prior 123 support at $47.50 before a strong close.  Potential descending wedge formation here.  Would look to short on a close below $47.50 with targets at $42.50 and $40.   Dollar stop on small size.

ISLE – Bull flag formation with trading range of $13.50-$10.50 but volume too low for me.

PENN – Descending triangle formation still holding 200EMA.  Looks very bearish to me, but volume also too low.

RIG – Rough week for oil as RIG sits precariously on the neckline of yet another H&S formation.

UNG – Lots of interest in UNG as it failed a support line on Thursday.  Heading for a double bottom retest at $12.75.  Highly watched at the moment, and probably not the best option for a swing  trade.