Looking at the short side today by the looks of it. No car bailout for GM and Chrysler, Oil dropping close to $50, G-20 pessimism on the global economy etc. All of this ties in quite nicely to my anticipated shorts in EXC, DY and DE in particular.
If you check back you’ll notice this rally in the past 2 weeks or so has formed a bear flag in a lot of stocks, so some selling today could see a sustained downward move in the markets. For this reason I am bearish for the start of this week and will look to scale into shorts in EXC, DY, DE and possibly FCX too.
Premarket we are down in the futures but holding support levels at 7550 on /YM and 790 on the /ES. Today I am looking at resistance of 800 and 810 on the S&P.; Both the Dow and S&P; are at the S2 pivot points premarket.
Just spied some excellent FX trades overnight too.
Charts, updates and trade sheets to follow (if I make any)
Update 5pm GMT BST!
Very tempted to scale into a long on both DE and DY here based on a nice gap down to support areas;
Elsewhere I have scaled into a short in EXC at $44.91. Has consolidated around the pivot points today and I think I may hold this for a few days. Currently targeting $42.50 with stops $45.75. I’ll post the trade sheet later tonight. Working at 4:1 ratio here which is ok, but feel my entry could have been timed better.
Evening update 22:50 GMT
Still holding my EXC short into tomorrow. I’m not so sure if this is a great move but time will tell. I am bearish on the EXC chart however there are quite a few big caps holding steady at support after todays gap down. I would really like to see this consolidation form a bear flag, with continued selling for the rest of the week. At present I have no adjusted my stops or limits in EXC as I’m going to let this run it’s course.
This is my intra-day analysis of EXC. Felt really good when that double top at $44.10 went in. There was a strong high volume close today whiuch I put down to covering. BTW I left at 8pm to play football tonight so I missed the last hour of trading.
Elsewhere LNC got creamed, down nearly 40% today on news announcement. Nice sell off to $38 on FCX, a price level I mentioned. BNI was scalpable too.
I mentioned DE and DY earlier in the day, and I’m glad I didn’t scale in as both show signs of weakness. DE did intra-day double bottom at $31.80 and got a bump off from that but I remain bearish until it’s over $32.50
Trade of the day goes to one I missed; LDK. Perfect gap closing 123 against the 200+20EMAs on a dead cross…
Penultimately here is my paper blotter from today. These were all limit orders except POT and UNP which I held short over the weekend. The highlighted BNI trade was a limit order gone mad (problem with stop/limit order), a simple mistake that must be avoided in the future.
A weapon of a tune from Royksopp!