Profit Hunting

On paper last week was fairly decent.

Leadership seems to be in tech/entertainment stocks and financials.  Nobody is interested in companies that make things anymore.

Couple of charts to have a look at;

XOM breakout, expansion on high volume

XOM breakout, expansion on high volume

XOM looking good on a high volume breakout over double-top resistance.  Expansion days on the breakout were consecutive at >1.5ATR which is strong.

Looking for 3-5 days of narrow-range consolidation on lighter volume for entry signal here.  Alternatively, a more longer term move back to $50 for entry, which would provide a better risk reward ratio with stop placement at $49.25

This chart above is almost identical to the MGA chart I posted in March last year.  Here’s what eventually happened there:

MGA post breakout bull-flag behaviour

MGA post breakout bull-flag behaviour

These trades are good setups – the hard part is being able to manage the downside risk and time the entry.

Stop placement when trading flag consolidation over a period of 2-3 weeks can be tricky, so you’d be looking for an exact entry signal on an intra-day basis here.

Falling knife

AMD falling knife

Posting this for any long term value traders out there.

Risk reward is immense right now, but this is ticking down at all time-lows (>20 years) for the third time in 7 years.  The downside risk is about 15 cents, but I couldn’t really sugest a long here.

I’d be more interested in shorting the first retest of the breakdown of Fridays close.

WPX daily, breaking down

WPX daily, breaking down

An actionable short, similar to the setup in AMD but in WPX right now.

This is breaking a good base a key level ($10), forced by some extremely high participation.

A short on a move back to 10 offers an extremely attractive and low risk trade – if you can get it.

However, judging by the intra-day chart of MPX, this ship may have already sailed.  Short-term ascending wedge back in to the breakdown area.  Great trade if you can catch them, but this stock would have had to have been on your radar before it was near $10.

Has WPX already given the best risk/reward short?

Has WPX already given the best risk/reward short?

Advertisements

Profit Hunting

Not too many good looking medium/short term trades at the moment.

A few longer term charts caught my eye though;

ABX daily 10/07

ABX daily 10/07

Gold isn’t having a good time just now, and ABX is at 20 year lows just now, having just cracked down from a few long term support levels in recent months.

Medium term triple bottom support here at the key psychological $10 level may mean some bottom fishers might start stepping in soon.

However..

GLD monthly

GLD monthly

GLD still showing some signs of technical weakness, with the next support at 100.  100 on GLD (1000 on GC contract) would be a better level to step in to the likes of ABX, GOLD and GG.

GOLD between 55-60 and GGs current descending wedge formations offer a little more downside protection compared to the fresh air on ABX.

INTC monthly

INTC monthly

Intel stepping in to some strong support levels just now but with some heavy medium term weakness in the form of a year-long reversal formation (head and shoulders) on the daily.

I’m not sure how to interpret the thin relative volume at these levels.

There will be some good trades coming up here soon, since this stock has some good levels to work from.

Personally, I’d accumulate at 12 for extreme long term holds.  But that price is very very far away for a stock like Intel.

Profit Hunting

Not your average Profit Hunting post.  I checked the archives of my blog and it turns out it is officially six years old.  Six years is a long time and I can still remember the early days of my trading career pretty well!

Coinciding with the birthday, I also opened a document I wrote in Drive which outlined a list of articles I was going to write to start a site focused on trader education.  Here’s a time stamp which outlines how much of a procrastinator I have been lately!

Yikes, a year.

Yikes, a year.

Going in to this sites seventh year (!) I am planning to pull my finger out and crack on with it.  Even if it is just one article a week, progress is progress.

Happy birthdays aside, lets check some trade ideas and some technical lessons;

MGA breakout and continuation example

MGA breakout and continuation example

Potential reversal in COST

Potential reversal in COST

Just missed FCX this week!

Just missed FCX this week!

Gold recovery, options ahead

Gold recovery, options ahead

CLF continues a melt-down

CLF continues a melt-down

WLT is a short term traders vehicle right now

WLT is a short term traders vehicle right now

Keep an eye on AGO

Keep an eye on AGO

 

 

Profit Hunting

Puckle charts to have a look at.  Not a massive amount of good technicals about – a lot of stocks seem to have made key moves over the past fortnight so this week there is a lot of ‘late to the party’ setups.

AET, same as GM - no notation needed

AET, same as GM – no notation needed

GE make or break

GE make or break

GM trend & lateral junction

GM trend & lateral junction

Longer term consolidation phase on JNJ

Longer term consolidation phase on JNJ

Potential breakdown on MDT

Potential breakdown on MDT

In other news, I’m waiting for Ghost to get to version 1.0 before swapping the site from WordPress.  TSLR & WP seems clunky and outdated now and I’m looking to start with a clean slate.

Long time no tunes too!

Profit Hunting

As a technical trader, I love how a few sessions can turn an average list of stocks in to a bunch of great trade set-ups.  Lots of good techicals out there this week which serves as a reminder that patience is a virtue when it comes to trading.

You’ll notice the market going through spells like this a dozen or so times a year.  These spells offer the best risk reward ratios as stocks move above resistance or towards established bases on good volume.

These periods are where most technicians make the most of their coin.

I barely made it beyond tickers beginning with ‘B’ before I had enough content for a profit hunting post.  RVBD has been on weekly-watch for a few weeks.

ABT keen for a breakout to fresh highs

ABT keen for a breakout to fresh highs

Strong trend on AET as it too looks for new highs

Strong trend on AET as it too looks for new highs

Interesting technicals on BEN, could go either way

Interesting technicals on BEN, could go either way

Long term reversal playing out in RVBD

Long term reversal playing out in RVBD

ACAS, MRO and COV are 3 more stocks with charts similar to ABT & AET.

My gut shot is bullish, however with few of these charts confirming their breakouts (DOW a prime example) I can see how bears would be scaling in here.

These price levels as of Thursday pre-market offer excellent risk/reward ratios for both longs and shorts, so it will be interesting to see who wins heading in to next week.

Happy trading.

Profit Hunting

Less actual trades, more interesting technical formations today.

First off, a pretty nice head and shoulders reversal formation which is beginning to follow through on SU.  Good example for technical purists out there.

SU daily - bearish head and shoulders reversal formation

SU daily – bearish head and shoulders reversal formation

Next up a look at what appears to be a meltdown in progress.  TC is down in the low single figures now, and formations on both the short/medium charts and long (weekly) time frame show how this has happened.

I imagine there’ll be short covering and bottom fishing at these levels.  I for one would not be opening any longs though, the stock looks pretty ill.

TC daily chart - clean reversal and continuation formations

TC daily chart – clean reversal and continuation formations

TC weekly - it's a long way down.  Good technicals following through

TC weekly – it’s a long way down. Good technicals following through

Profit Hunting

Its been a long time.

Not too many charts catching my eye out there.  Most are either churning upwards without a value buying area or chopping sideways.  7 charts caught my eye, the majority of them are longer term plays.

Long term

Exxon at major resistance, breakout looming?

Exxon at major resistance, breakout looming?

VVUS breaking down after long consolidation

VVUS breaking down after long consolidation

SWKS trying to break a triangle, will it hold?

SWKS trying to break a triangle, will it hold?

POT weighing heavy at these levels, potentially break down soon

POT weighing heavy at these levels, potentially break down soon

Short/Medium term swing candidates

Potential breakout on PNC

Potential breakout on PNC

C forming a nice ascending triangle formation

C forming a nice ascending triangle formation

Crunch time for SHLD

Crunch time for SHLD

PNC and C are my favourites here as they offer the cleanest trades.  I am also tracking TCK with interest.  A few of the gold stocks are reaching longer term bases too – but it may be better trading GLD or futures at this point in time.

Profit Hunting

Markets are top heavy once more.  I was expecting lighter downside consolidation after last week, but after dull narrow openings on Monday and Tuesday, the bulls took control with conviction to drive S&P and Dow to new all time highs by the end of today.

I’m finding it a little tricky to find the quality here, but still have some good setups on my radar.

Intel breaking out

Intel breaking out

MDT looking for highs

MDT looking for highs

PBI thinking about catching some action

PBI thinking about catching some action

SU looking weak

SU looking weak

AScending triangle in TYC

AScending triangle in TYC

WNR with reversal formations

WNR with reversal formations

Great mix of charts and a rare mid-week post tonight.  I’ve been surprised by INTC the past few sessions and it’s one of those slow turning stocks that moves quick when it gets a head of steam.

I finally ironed out the problems within my linear regression ATS and it’s been performing really well over the past few sessions.  I am looking to try it on a more robust platform as TOS is very limited when it comes to programming exit strategies.